I understand that the country voted for change in November, but is this really what we had in mind? It's seems like we now have a government that has completely lost it's mind and is running amok, spending hundreds billions, probably trillions, of dollars with no real idea of whether any of this spending will make a dime's worth of difference to solve our current economic woes.
We get corporate bailouts followed by "stimulus" plans that nobody read, followed by mortgage bailouts, and every time one is announced the stock market plummets, 401Ks get smaller and the public confidence goes down.
As this because we feel the government needs to "do something" even if that something makes the situation worse not better. Has anyone ever considered that sometimes there are events in our lives that are just too big for the government to stop?
If a hurricane were heading toward us, would we start clamoring for the government to "do something" to stop the hurricane? Of course not. Why? The hurricane is something too large for the government to do anything about. If it were to try all the resources used to try and stop it would be wasted. The government can warn us it is coming, tell us to get out of the way, help clean up the mess after it has passed and even help us rebuild. But stop it? Impossible.
Has anyone ever considered that we may be in the midst of an economic and financial hurricane that is simply too big and too powerful for the government to stop? Has anyone considered that all the money (debt) being used to try to stop it is simply being wasted and we will have nothing to show for it but the debt payments?
As a real estate broker, times are tough and we all hope things improve soon. But it's hard to see that doubling down on the irresponsible policies of the previous administration is the way out. I am personally tired of listening to all the chatter about what the economists say. In my opinion, economists are nothing more that a modern version of the court astrologist.
What would seem to work is common sense. If too much risk, too much debt an too much spending got us into this mess, then less risk, less debt and less spending would get us out. Since the lunatics in the government are doing the exact opposite, it's hard to be confident. God help us all.
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Saturday, February 7, 2009
2009 Starts Where 2008 Left Off
With a new year comes the hope of some good news, especially when it comes to the Monmouth County housing market. Sadly, this year has picked up where last year left off.
I would like to report that the January sales figures showed improvement from a year ago, but sadly, that is not the case. Hard is it is to believe the market continues to grow weaker, sales continue to decline and prices continue to fall.
There is a bit of a new wrinkle to January's sales figures. Last year the condo market some more strength, although you could hardly describe it as strong, than the single family market. The reverse now seems to be the case. In December 2008 and now in January 2009, the closings for condominiums plummeted. Condo closing in January 2009 were almost 60% fewer than for January 2008. The end result of this is that January ended with almost 27 months of standing condominium inventory. Remember, six months of inventory is considered a level that leads to stable prices. Twenty seven months can only mean one thing, look for condo prices to get hit hard in the the early part of the year.
The single family market continues to weaken, just not a dramatically. Closings reported for single family homes were off about 23% in January this year when compared against January last year. Keep in mind, sales of single family homes were off about 22% in 2008, so the latest figures give no indication that the market is bottoming out. Standing inventory for single family homes in January was just over 22 months. You know what that means for prices, down they go.
So far the incredible amounts of money that the government has thrown at the problem has had not visible effect. The focus continues to be on the supply side of the equation, but that would not appear to be where the problem lies. Right now there are only slightly more homes for sale around the county than there were in 2006. So why is there so much pressure on prices? Sales have plummeted.
If our government wants to approve things, they needs to focus on the demand side of the problem. Until there is a greater appetite for real estate, the situation will continue to be bad. I have to admit, as a veteran of 30 years in this business, I am getting tired of reporting the same distressing news month after month. I would like to be able to say there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is a freight train coming straight at us. But there is no light, in fact we may not even be in a tunnel.
Hopefully things will improve soon. The government is about to pass the largest single expenditure legislation in the history of the world. Perhaps that will help. If it doesn't, watch out!
I would like to report that the January sales figures showed improvement from a year ago, but sadly, that is not the case. Hard is it is to believe the market continues to grow weaker, sales continue to decline and prices continue to fall.
There is a bit of a new wrinkle to January's sales figures. Last year the condo market some more strength, although you could hardly describe it as strong, than the single family market. The reverse now seems to be the case. In December 2008 and now in January 2009, the closings for condominiums plummeted. Condo closing in January 2009 were almost 60% fewer than for January 2008. The end result of this is that January ended with almost 27 months of standing condominium inventory. Remember, six months of inventory is considered a level that leads to stable prices. Twenty seven months can only mean one thing, look for condo prices to get hit hard in the the early part of the year.
The single family market continues to weaken, just not a dramatically. Closings reported for single family homes were off about 23% in January this year when compared against January last year. Keep in mind, sales of single family homes were off about 22% in 2008, so the latest figures give no indication that the market is bottoming out. Standing inventory for single family homes in January was just over 22 months. You know what that means for prices, down they go.
So far the incredible amounts of money that the government has thrown at the problem has had not visible effect. The focus continues to be on the supply side of the equation, but that would not appear to be where the problem lies. Right now there are only slightly more homes for sale around the county than there were in 2006. So why is there so much pressure on prices? Sales have plummeted.
If our government wants to approve things, they needs to focus on the demand side of the problem. Until there is a greater appetite for real estate, the situation will continue to be bad. I have to admit, as a veteran of 30 years in this business, I am getting tired of reporting the same distressing news month after month. I would like to be able to say there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is a freight train coming straight at us. But there is no light, in fact we may not even be in a tunnel.
Hopefully things will improve soon. The government is about to pass the largest single expenditure legislation in the history of the world. Perhaps that will help. If it doesn't, watch out!
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Is There Anyone Who Will Represent Us?
Although this is a real estate blog, I feel compelled to comment and vent my anger at the Bailout Mania that is sweeping through our government. It seems that our "leaders", and I use that word very loosely, have completely lost their minds and can't move fast enough to bail out everyone, whether it be companies, individuals or governments who now find themselves between a rock and a hard place.
The more I listen to the "experts", the more I am convinced that nobody in a position of authority has a clue on how to get us out of the mess we are in. You need to look no further than our Treasury Secretary, who less than two months ago said the world would end if we didn't agree to buy toxic assets from troubled banks, now says we don't need to buy them at all! Think about this for a minute. Our habit of borrowing from tomorrow to pay for today has, in large measure, brought us to the point we are at. What is our government's plan to rescue us? Borrow even more money from tomorrow to pay for today! This is nuts!
You would think that once it is clear that nobody has the answers, caution would be the order of the day. But no, instead we throw caution to wind and race to spend money we don't have to bail out people who can't be rescued. We are bailing out banks, insurance companies, probably auto companies, those unfortunate individuals who are in trouble with their mortgages, and probably city and state governments as well. We are at the point where we are no longer talking tens or hundreds of billion of dollars, but are now talking in the trillions. And these trillions of dollars are dollars we don't actually have. This can't possibly end well.
But not everyone is in trouble. There are people in the country who have made it a habit to live within their means. IS THERE ANYONE IN OUR GOVERNMENT LOOKING OUT FOR THOSE OF US WHO HAVE USED OUR HOMES AS ATM MACHINES, WHO HAVE NOT MADE IT A LIFESTYLE TO BORROW FROM TOMORROW TO PAY FOR TODAY? It would appear not. Isn't anyone willing to stand up and be the voice of us that don't have massive credit card debt, that have gone without at times because we didn't have the money to pay for it, that have made a habit of saving some of what we earn because it is the right thing to do?
This whole economic situation is not only sad, it is downright maddening. What is most frustrating is that those of us that have lived our lives in an economically responsible way are going to get stuck with the tab for the disaster that our government seems intent on bringing upon us!
The more I listen to the "experts", the more I am convinced that nobody in a position of authority has a clue on how to get us out of the mess we are in. You need to look no further than our Treasury Secretary, who less than two months ago said the world would end if we didn't agree to buy toxic assets from troubled banks, now says we don't need to buy them at all! Think about this for a minute. Our habit of borrowing from tomorrow to pay for today has, in large measure, brought us to the point we are at. What is our government's plan to rescue us? Borrow even more money from tomorrow to pay for today! This is nuts!
You would think that once it is clear that nobody has the answers, caution would be the order of the day. But no, instead we throw caution to wind and race to spend money we don't have to bail out people who can't be rescued. We are bailing out banks, insurance companies, probably auto companies, those unfortunate individuals who are in trouble with their mortgages, and probably city and state governments as well. We are at the point where we are no longer talking tens or hundreds of billion of dollars, but are now talking in the trillions. And these trillions of dollars are dollars we don't actually have. This can't possibly end well.
But not everyone is in trouble. There are people in the country who have made it a habit to live within their means. IS THERE ANYONE IN OUR GOVERNMENT LOOKING OUT FOR THOSE OF US WHO HAVE USED OUR HOMES AS ATM MACHINES, WHO HAVE NOT MADE IT A LIFESTYLE TO BORROW FROM TOMORROW TO PAY FOR TODAY? It would appear not. Isn't anyone willing to stand up and be the voice of us that don't have massive credit card debt, that have gone without at times because we didn't have the money to pay for it, that have made a habit of saving some of what we earn because it is the right thing to do?
This whole economic situation is not only sad, it is downright maddening. What is most frustrating is that those of us that have lived our lives in an economically responsible way are going to get stuck with the tab for the disaster that our government seems intent on bringing upon us!
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Mortgage Bailout Plan Is The Government Version of Predatory Lending
The mortgage bailout plan unveiled yesterday, designed to "help" homeowners in financial difficulty stay in their homes, is a perfect example why we should board up the windows and barricade the doors whenever the government attempts to come to our rescue.
What has been proposed is little more than a government version of predatory lending. Here are the basics as I understand them. Homeowners who are delinquent on the mortgages and have no equity in their homes can get a loan modification whereby the rate would be adjusted to 3% and the total housing payment for the homeowner would not be more than 38% of the monthly income. All this is based on a 40 year amortization schedule. So good so far.
Now here is the bad (predatory) part. Nothing is being done to change the mortgage balance. Let's say you bought the house for $300,000 and the mortgage was $280,000 and now the house is worth $200,000. That means your have negative equity in the home of $80,000. Let's also assume that the rate adjustment with the payment limit would equate to a $180,000 mortgage. If you stayed in the home for forty years, which is unlikely but possible, you would still owe the lender $100,000 at the end of the mortgage.
If you sold the house, which is more likely, you would have to pay off the full mortgage amount of $280,000. Since the average family moves every 7 years, what are the chances that the prices will stop falling and then appreciate enough to get the value back to around $300,000 before you move? Not likely.
The government thinks this workable based on the notion that housing prices inevitably go up. Isn't this the same assumption that got us into this mess in the first place? This program will do little more than postpone the day of reckoning that troubled homeowners are currently facing. It is very unlikely to solve their problems. Isn't it ironic that we listen to our elected officials to rail against the predatory mortgage companies, yet feel it is OK to offer the same kind of garbage in the name of "assistance"?
As a real estate broker, I want to see the market improve ASAP. I wish this sounded like a solution, but it doesn't. It sounds like another reason why government intrusion into the private sector is likely to make a bad situation even worse.
What has been proposed is little more than a government version of predatory lending. Here are the basics as I understand them. Homeowners who are delinquent on the mortgages and have no equity in their homes can get a loan modification whereby the rate would be adjusted to 3% and the total housing payment for the homeowner would not be more than 38% of the monthly income. All this is based on a 40 year amortization schedule. So good so far.
Now here is the bad (predatory) part. Nothing is being done to change the mortgage balance. Let's say you bought the house for $300,000 and the mortgage was $280,000 and now the house is worth $200,000. That means your have negative equity in the home of $80,000. Let's also assume that the rate adjustment with the payment limit would equate to a $180,000 mortgage. If you stayed in the home for forty years, which is unlikely but possible, you would still owe the lender $100,000 at the end of the mortgage.
If you sold the house, which is more likely, you would have to pay off the full mortgage amount of $280,000. Since the average family moves every 7 years, what are the chances that the prices will stop falling and then appreciate enough to get the value back to around $300,000 before you move? Not likely.
The government thinks this workable based on the notion that housing prices inevitably go up. Isn't this the same assumption that got us into this mess in the first place? This program will do little more than postpone the day of reckoning that troubled homeowners are currently facing. It is very unlikely to solve their problems. Isn't it ironic that we listen to our elected officials to rail against the predatory mortgage companies, yet feel it is OK to offer the same kind of garbage in the name of "assistance"?
As a real estate broker, I want to see the market improve ASAP. I wish this sounded like a solution, but it doesn't. It sounds like another reason why government intrusion into the private sector is likely to make a bad situation even worse.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Our Problem is a Demand, Not a Supply Problem
There has been a lot of discussion lately about what it will take to firm up the real estate market and put a bottom under the prices. Most of the discussion has been centered on the supply side of the market, with the talk centered on how to help people who are behind on their mortgages stay in their homes so those homes don't add to the supply in the market.
No doubt such an approach would take some homes off the market and prevent others from going on the market. However, foreclosed properties and those in pre-forclosure make up a relatively small precentage of all the homes currently for sale.
We do have too many homes for sale relative to the demand, but the fact remains that the number of single family homes listed for sale in Momouth County this year is about 10% less than last year for the same time period. In spite of this, the inventory levels are higher than last year.
Why is this the case? The number of homes being bought is declining at an even faster rate. Although the number of new listings has declined, the number of new sales has declined even more, resulting in an even greater oversupply in 2008.
What can we do to firm up the market? One is to let the market cycle run it's course. Ultimately prices will decline enough that "experts" who have the ability to influence large numbers of people will send out a "buy" signal which will bring people into the market. That approach will take care of things but will probably take a lot longer than most people wouldl like.
The other is to try to interrupt the normal business cycle. Helping people stay in their homes is an attempt to do that. So far, the results have been minimal. A better approach would be to stimulate demand. Right now, people are hesitant to purchase real estate because they see more risk than return. To stimulate demand, we would have to change that equation by creating an upside to purchasing where people don't currently see one.
How might that be done? The only thing that government can to stimulate demand is through incentives. What might they be? The only thing I can come up with are tax incentives for purchasing real estate. If the tax incentives were great enough, people would see enough upside to purchasing that the risk would be worth it. With sufficient incentives, demand would go up and the excess inventory would soon dry up and prices would find a floor. That is what everyone is says we need.
No doubt such an approach would take some homes off the market and prevent others from going on the market. However, foreclosed properties and those in pre-forclosure make up a relatively small precentage of all the homes currently for sale.
We do have too many homes for sale relative to the demand, but the fact remains that the number of single family homes listed for sale in Momouth County this year is about 10% less than last year for the same time period. In spite of this, the inventory levels are higher than last year.
Why is this the case? The number of homes being bought is declining at an even faster rate. Although the number of new listings has declined, the number of new sales has declined even more, resulting in an even greater oversupply in 2008.
What can we do to firm up the market? One is to let the market cycle run it's course. Ultimately prices will decline enough that "experts" who have the ability to influence large numbers of people will send out a "buy" signal which will bring people into the market. That approach will take care of things but will probably take a lot longer than most people wouldl like.
The other is to try to interrupt the normal business cycle. Helping people stay in their homes is an attempt to do that. So far, the results have been minimal. A better approach would be to stimulate demand. Right now, people are hesitant to purchase real estate because they see more risk than return. To stimulate demand, we would have to change that equation by creating an upside to purchasing where people don't currently see one.
How might that be done? The only thing that government can to stimulate demand is through incentives. What might they be? The only thing I can come up with are tax incentives for purchasing real estate. If the tax incentives were great enough, people would see enough upside to purchasing that the risk would be worth it. With sufficient incentives, demand would go up and the excess inventory would soon dry up and prices would find a floor. That is what everyone is says we need.
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