I understand that the country voted for change in November, but is this really what we had in mind? It's seems like we now have a government that has completely lost it's mind and is running amok, spending hundreds billions, probably trillions, of dollars with no real idea of whether any of this spending will make a dime's worth of difference to solve our current economic woes.
We get corporate bailouts followed by "stimulus" plans that nobody read, followed by mortgage bailouts, and every time one is announced the stock market plummets, 401Ks get smaller and the public confidence goes down.
As this because we feel the government needs to "do something" even if that something makes the situation worse not better. Has anyone ever considered that sometimes there are events in our lives that are just too big for the government to stop?
If a hurricane were heading toward us, would we start clamoring for the government to "do something" to stop the hurricane? Of course not. Why? The hurricane is something too large for the government to do anything about. If it were to try all the resources used to try and stop it would be wasted. The government can warn us it is coming, tell us to get out of the way, help clean up the mess after it has passed and even help us rebuild. But stop it? Impossible.
Has anyone ever considered that we may be in the midst of an economic and financial hurricane that is simply too big and too powerful for the government to stop? Has anyone considered that all the money (debt) being used to try to stop it is simply being wasted and we will have nothing to show for it but the debt payments?
As a real estate broker, times are tough and we all hope things improve soon. But it's hard to see that doubling down on the irresponsible policies of the previous administration is the way out. I am personally tired of listening to all the chatter about what the economists say. In my opinion, economists are nothing more that a modern version of the court astrologist.
What would seem to work is common sense. If too much risk, too much debt an too much spending got us into this mess, then less risk, less debt and less spending would get us out. Since the lunatics in the government are doing the exact opposite, it's hard to be confident. God help us all.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Saturday, February 7, 2009
2009 Starts Where 2008 Left Off
With a new year comes the hope of some good news, especially when it comes to the Monmouth County housing market. Sadly, this year has picked up where last year left off.
I would like to report that the January sales figures showed improvement from a year ago, but sadly, that is not the case. Hard is it is to believe the market continues to grow weaker, sales continue to decline and prices continue to fall.
There is a bit of a new wrinkle to January's sales figures. Last year the condo market some more strength, although you could hardly describe it as strong, than the single family market. The reverse now seems to be the case. In December 2008 and now in January 2009, the closings for condominiums plummeted. Condo closing in January 2009 were almost 60% fewer than for January 2008. The end result of this is that January ended with almost 27 months of standing condominium inventory. Remember, six months of inventory is considered a level that leads to stable prices. Twenty seven months can only mean one thing, look for condo prices to get hit hard in the the early part of the year.
The single family market continues to weaken, just not a dramatically. Closings reported for single family homes were off about 23% in January this year when compared against January last year. Keep in mind, sales of single family homes were off about 22% in 2008, so the latest figures give no indication that the market is bottoming out. Standing inventory for single family homes in January was just over 22 months. You know what that means for prices, down they go.
So far the incredible amounts of money that the government has thrown at the problem has had not visible effect. The focus continues to be on the supply side of the equation, but that would not appear to be where the problem lies. Right now there are only slightly more homes for sale around the county than there were in 2006. So why is there so much pressure on prices? Sales have plummeted.
If our government wants to approve things, they needs to focus on the demand side of the problem. Until there is a greater appetite for real estate, the situation will continue to be bad. I have to admit, as a veteran of 30 years in this business, I am getting tired of reporting the same distressing news month after month. I would like to be able to say there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is a freight train coming straight at us. But there is no light, in fact we may not even be in a tunnel.
Hopefully things will improve soon. The government is about to pass the largest single expenditure legislation in the history of the world. Perhaps that will help. If it doesn't, watch out!
I would like to report that the January sales figures showed improvement from a year ago, but sadly, that is not the case. Hard is it is to believe the market continues to grow weaker, sales continue to decline and prices continue to fall.
There is a bit of a new wrinkle to January's sales figures. Last year the condo market some more strength, although you could hardly describe it as strong, than the single family market. The reverse now seems to be the case. In December 2008 and now in January 2009, the closings for condominiums plummeted. Condo closing in January 2009 were almost 60% fewer than for January 2008. The end result of this is that January ended with almost 27 months of standing condominium inventory. Remember, six months of inventory is considered a level that leads to stable prices. Twenty seven months can only mean one thing, look for condo prices to get hit hard in the the early part of the year.
The single family market continues to weaken, just not a dramatically. Closings reported for single family homes were off about 23% in January this year when compared against January last year. Keep in mind, sales of single family homes were off about 22% in 2008, so the latest figures give no indication that the market is bottoming out. Standing inventory for single family homes in January was just over 22 months. You know what that means for prices, down they go.
So far the incredible amounts of money that the government has thrown at the problem has had not visible effect. The focus continues to be on the supply side of the equation, but that would not appear to be where the problem lies. Right now there are only slightly more homes for sale around the county than there were in 2006. So why is there so much pressure on prices? Sales have plummeted.
If our government wants to approve things, they needs to focus on the demand side of the problem. Until there is a greater appetite for real estate, the situation will continue to be bad. I have to admit, as a veteran of 30 years in this business, I am getting tired of reporting the same distressing news month after month. I would like to be able to say there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is a freight train coming straight at us. But there is no light, in fact we may not even be in a tunnel.
Hopefully things will improve soon. The government is about to pass the largest single expenditure legislation in the history of the world. Perhaps that will help. If it doesn't, watch out!
Friday, January 9, 2009
2008 Is Behind Us, Thank Goodness!
Now that the year is done, it is a good time to reflect back and also look forward. 2008 will go down as one of the toughest years in the Monmouth County real estate market since the late 1980's. The sale of single family homes was off about 22% from 2007 and prices declined as well.
Not all communities and not all types of homes felt the impact of the market equally. Those properties that fared the best were those with strong locations and those that were the newest or recently renovated. The condominium market showed more strength than the single family market, but the multi-family homes were hit hardest of all. We finished the year with the highest imbalance between supply and demand in the decade.
Where do we go from here? One thing seems certain, prices are going to continue to decline at least for the first half of 2009, possibly longer. There is just too much supply relative to demand to expect anything else to happen. So far the attempts by the government to stabilize the market have had little impact. Until such time as the demand for real estate improves, we will continue to have an oversupply of housing and declining prices. The demand for homes has declined about 40% from the levels of 205-2006.
We do have lower interest rates, about 5% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, and the lower rates will draw some into the market. However, the overhang of a weak economy will likely offset some of the upside of lower interest rates, leaving the impact of the rates to be marginal at best.
If you are buying, there are some tremendous values in the market, especially for first time buyers. If you are selling, the sooner you find a buyer the more money you are likely to see. No doubt you will be disappointed by the prices, but waiting will likely cost you more money.
This too shall pass, hopefully sooner rather than later. But for now, the market remains challenging and there is a chance we haven't seen the worst of it yet. Happy New Year!
Not all communities and not all types of homes felt the impact of the market equally. Those properties that fared the best were those with strong locations and those that were the newest or recently renovated. The condominium market showed more strength than the single family market, but the multi-family homes were hit hardest of all. We finished the year with the highest imbalance between supply and demand in the decade.
Where do we go from here? One thing seems certain, prices are going to continue to decline at least for the first half of 2009, possibly longer. There is just too much supply relative to demand to expect anything else to happen. So far the attempts by the government to stabilize the market have had little impact. Until such time as the demand for real estate improves, we will continue to have an oversupply of housing and declining prices. The demand for homes has declined about 40% from the levels of 205-2006.
We do have lower interest rates, about 5% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, and the lower rates will draw some into the market. However, the overhang of a weak economy will likely offset some of the upside of lower interest rates, leaving the impact of the rates to be marginal at best.
If you are buying, there are some tremendous values in the market, especially for first time buyers. If you are selling, the sooner you find a buyer the more money you are likely to see. No doubt you will be disappointed by the prices, but waiting will likely cost you more money.
This too shall pass, hopefully sooner rather than later. But for now, the market remains challenging and there is a chance we haven't seen the worst of it yet. Happy New Year!
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Zero Percent Fed Funds Rate? You've Got To Be Kidding! What's Next?
There is no doubt that we are living in very interesting times. Earlier this week the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds rate to zero, which means they are basically giving money away. Good grief! And that's not the end of it. The Fed also said they will buy up every crappy financial asset anyone wants to sell them. I guess they are also the financial junkyard of last resort as well.
What this means is that our government is doing everything possible to encourage Americans to run up even more debt than we have now. Is there anyone out there who can explain to me why this is a good idea? It seems that a major reason why we are in the economic mess we find ourselves in is a result of our borrowing from tomorrow to spend on today. How can even more borrowing solve the problem that too much borrowing caused? What am I missing? If you find yourself in a hole, isn't it better to put down the shovel and have someone get you a ladder, instead of getting a bigger shovel?
I know that our "leaders" are hoping this will stimulate economic activity, but why do I have a nagging feeling we will not get the result they are hoping for, but end up with someone much worse than recession, like massive inflation? I don't pretend to be a genius on economic matters, but I have a hard time figuring out how the bad habits that created a problem can be solved by more of the same bad habits. Will someone please explain it to me?
As a real estate broker I do see some upside to this in the short run. Interest rates on mortgages have come down and are around 5% and the rates on home equity loans are ridiculously low. There are already stories that the applications for refinances have gone through the roof. The downside of this is that the people who are in a position to refinance are, for the most part, the people who don't have their homes. Those people who have their homes for sale because they are upside down with their equity or are behind on their current mortgages can't refinance, so the lower rates will do them no good.
The government has been trying to figure out a way to support the real estate market to prevent further declines in real estate prices. So far, their efforts have failed. I suspect this latest move will fail also. No doubt that some buyers will come into the market to take advantage of the lower interest rates, but probably not enough to have an impact.
My experience over the years has taught me that people come into the market and buy houses when they feel secure and are optimistic about the future. There isn't a lot of that out there right now. If someone thinks they may lose their job, or if they are concerned about their future, they don't buy houses, even if the interest rates are very low.
And so the beat goes on. What can we likely expect over the next few months? The number of sales will likely be too low to firm up the prices, which means we will likely see prices continue to fall and with that will come a new crop of homeowners who will find themselves upside down with their equity.
Merry Christmas.
What this means is that our government is doing everything possible to encourage Americans to run up even more debt than we have now. Is there anyone out there who can explain to me why this is a good idea? It seems that a major reason why we are in the economic mess we find ourselves in is a result of our borrowing from tomorrow to spend on today. How can even more borrowing solve the problem that too much borrowing caused? What am I missing? If you find yourself in a hole, isn't it better to put down the shovel and have someone get you a ladder, instead of getting a bigger shovel?
I know that our "leaders" are hoping this will stimulate economic activity, but why do I have a nagging feeling we will not get the result they are hoping for, but end up with someone much worse than recession, like massive inflation? I don't pretend to be a genius on economic matters, but I have a hard time figuring out how the bad habits that created a problem can be solved by more of the same bad habits. Will someone please explain it to me?
As a real estate broker I do see some upside to this in the short run. Interest rates on mortgages have come down and are around 5% and the rates on home equity loans are ridiculously low. There are already stories that the applications for refinances have gone through the roof. The downside of this is that the people who are in a position to refinance are, for the most part, the people who don't have their homes. Those people who have their homes for sale because they are upside down with their equity or are behind on their current mortgages can't refinance, so the lower rates will do them no good.
The government has been trying to figure out a way to support the real estate market to prevent further declines in real estate prices. So far, their efforts have failed. I suspect this latest move will fail also. No doubt that some buyers will come into the market to take advantage of the lower interest rates, but probably not enough to have an impact.
My experience over the years has taught me that people come into the market and buy houses when they feel secure and are optimistic about the future. There isn't a lot of that out there right now. If someone thinks they may lose their job, or if they are concerned about their future, they don't buy houses, even if the interest rates are very low.
And so the beat goes on. What can we likely expect over the next few months? The number of sales will likely be too low to firm up the prices, which means we will likely see prices continue to fall and with that will come a new crop of homeowners who will find themselves upside down with their equity.
Merry Christmas.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Yes Virginia, There Is Still Mortgage Money Available
One of the misconceptions that has resulted from the current credit crisis is the perception that there are no mortgages available to people who need them to buy houses. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Mortgage money is abundant and lenders are willing to lend to qualified applicants.
What has changed is what the profile of a qualified applicant looks like. Gone are the no documentation loans and most of the sub prime loans. Those are the loans you may have read about that are partly responsible for the soup we find ourselves in. Today a qualified applicant is someone who can verify that they have a job, can verify how much income they earn, have at least 10% of their own money to put toward a down payment and can prove it's their money and have credit scores at least in the upper 600's. If you fit that profile, you are likely to be a qualified applicant and mortgage money is available to you.
We do have a problem with loans to people who own their own businesses and their income is hard to verify. In the case of a business owner who isn't on a salary, the lender will rely on the tax returns of the applicant. If the business owner doesn't report all their income, they will not get as much of a mortgage as was the case when the funny money loans were widely available.
What has happened is that we have returned to the lending standards that served us so well before this decade. It's true that those standards do take a number of would be buyers out of the market, but in the long run, we will probably be the better for it.
What has changed is what the profile of a qualified applicant looks like. Gone are the no documentation loans and most of the sub prime loans. Those are the loans you may have read about that are partly responsible for the soup we find ourselves in. Today a qualified applicant is someone who can verify that they have a job, can verify how much income they earn, have at least 10% of their own money to put toward a down payment and can prove it's their money and have credit scores at least in the upper 600's. If you fit that profile, you are likely to be a qualified applicant and mortgage money is available to you.
We do have a problem with loans to people who own their own businesses and their income is hard to verify. In the case of a business owner who isn't on a salary, the lender will rely on the tax returns of the applicant. If the business owner doesn't report all their income, they will not get as much of a mortgage as was the case when the funny money loans were widely available.
What has happened is that we have returned to the lending standards that served us so well before this decade. It's true that those standards do take a number of would be buyers out of the market, but in the long run, we will probably be the better for it.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Weakening Economy Takes It's Toll On The Real Estate Market
With the month of November at an end, the effects of the weakening economy on the already weak real estate market are becoming more evident, and the impact has been negative. For November, the closings of single family homes declined from 357 in 2007 to 232 this year. That is a decline of 35%. For the year, sales of single family homes around the county have been off by about 21% on a year to year basis, so the November numbers show a further weakening of the real estate market.
Closed sales are a trailing indicator of real estate activity because the closed numbers reflect deals that were actually struck 30, 60 or 90 days earlier. New contracts, called pending sales, is a more current indicator of sales activity, so let's take a look at those numbers. In November 2007 there were 352 pending sales reported in Monmouth County as compared to 245 for November 2008. That represents a decline of 31% year to year. That is not as bad as the closing figures, but still represents clear evidence that the weakening economy is having a negative effect on the local real estate market.
What does all this mean and what can we expect as we move into 2009. Sadly, there is no evidence that the real estate market is showing signs of improvement. The oversupply of housing, relative to demand, is the highest it's been this decade. Because of this, it is likely that prices will continue to decline well into 2009, at the very least. Will there be more buyers in the Spring? Yes there will. But those buyers will likely be buying at lower prices than we see today. What to do?
If you are a seller, time is of the essence. You find yourself in a race against time for every day that your house doesn't sell means you are likely to get less money when it does. We have many clients that tell us they "aren't in a hurry" or "we don't have to sell" or "we don't have a gun to our head". Those people will probably wish they had been in a hurry. If you are a seller and want to attract the next buyer for your type of house, make sure you offer the best value based on the asking price. You have to price your house to stand out from the competition. You must make your home a "no brainer" in the mind of a buyer. As we advise our clients, this is a market that requires a strong stomach and bold action. This is not a market for half hearted sellers.
If you are a buyer, you should only pursue those homes that meet your lifestyle needs and are absolutely the best value, based on the asking price. Since prices are likely to decline again next year, you should only buy if you plan to be in the home at least five years. If you only see yourself in the home for a period less than that, you should not buy! This is a market that does require a buyer have faith that prices will stabilize and once again go up. Though we don't have these markets often, they do test one's faith in the future.
Closed sales are a trailing indicator of real estate activity because the closed numbers reflect deals that were actually struck 30, 60 or 90 days earlier. New contracts, called pending sales, is a more current indicator of sales activity, so let's take a look at those numbers. In November 2007 there were 352 pending sales reported in Monmouth County as compared to 245 for November 2008. That represents a decline of 31% year to year. That is not as bad as the closing figures, but still represents clear evidence that the weakening economy is having a negative effect on the local real estate market.
What does all this mean and what can we expect as we move into 2009. Sadly, there is no evidence that the real estate market is showing signs of improvement. The oversupply of housing, relative to demand, is the highest it's been this decade. Because of this, it is likely that prices will continue to decline well into 2009, at the very least. Will there be more buyers in the Spring? Yes there will. But those buyers will likely be buying at lower prices than we see today. What to do?
If you are a seller, time is of the essence. You find yourself in a race against time for every day that your house doesn't sell means you are likely to get less money when it does. We have many clients that tell us they "aren't in a hurry" or "we don't have to sell" or "we don't have a gun to our head". Those people will probably wish they had been in a hurry. If you are a seller and want to attract the next buyer for your type of house, make sure you offer the best value based on the asking price. You have to price your house to stand out from the competition. You must make your home a "no brainer" in the mind of a buyer. As we advise our clients, this is a market that requires a strong stomach and bold action. This is not a market for half hearted sellers.
If you are a buyer, you should only pursue those homes that meet your lifestyle needs and are absolutely the best value, based on the asking price. Since prices are likely to decline again next year, you should only buy if you plan to be in the home at least five years. If you only see yourself in the home for a period less than that, you should not buy! This is a market that does require a buyer have faith that prices will stabilize and once again go up. Though we don't have these markets often, they do test one's faith in the future.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Is There Anyone Who Will Represent Us?
Although this is a real estate blog, I feel compelled to comment and vent my anger at the Bailout Mania that is sweeping through our government. It seems that our "leaders", and I use that word very loosely, have completely lost their minds and can't move fast enough to bail out everyone, whether it be companies, individuals or governments who now find themselves between a rock and a hard place.
The more I listen to the "experts", the more I am convinced that nobody in a position of authority has a clue on how to get us out of the mess we are in. You need to look no further than our Treasury Secretary, who less than two months ago said the world would end if we didn't agree to buy toxic assets from troubled banks, now says we don't need to buy them at all! Think about this for a minute. Our habit of borrowing from tomorrow to pay for today has, in large measure, brought us to the point we are at. What is our government's plan to rescue us? Borrow even more money from tomorrow to pay for today! This is nuts!
You would think that once it is clear that nobody has the answers, caution would be the order of the day. But no, instead we throw caution to wind and race to spend money we don't have to bail out people who can't be rescued. We are bailing out banks, insurance companies, probably auto companies, those unfortunate individuals who are in trouble with their mortgages, and probably city and state governments as well. We are at the point where we are no longer talking tens or hundreds of billion of dollars, but are now talking in the trillions. And these trillions of dollars are dollars we don't actually have. This can't possibly end well.
But not everyone is in trouble. There are people in the country who have made it a habit to live within their means. IS THERE ANYONE IN OUR GOVERNMENT LOOKING OUT FOR THOSE OF US WHO HAVE USED OUR HOMES AS ATM MACHINES, WHO HAVE NOT MADE IT A LIFESTYLE TO BORROW FROM TOMORROW TO PAY FOR TODAY? It would appear not. Isn't anyone willing to stand up and be the voice of us that don't have massive credit card debt, that have gone without at times because we didn't have the money to pay for it, that have made a habit of saving some of what we earn because it is the right thing to do?
This whole economic situation is not only sad, it is downright maddening. What is most frustrating is that those of us that have lived our lives in an economically responsible way are going to get stuck with the tab for the disaster that our government seems intent on bringing upon us!
The more I listen to the "experts", the more I am convinced that nobody in a position of authority has a clue on how to get us out of the mess we are in. You need to look no further than our Treasury Secretary, who less than two months ago said the world would end if we didn't agree to buy toxic assets from troubled banks, now says we don't need to buy them at all! Think about this for a minute. Our habit of borrowing from tomorrow to pay for today has, in large measure, brought us to the point we are at. What is our government's plan to rescue us? Borrow even more money from tomorrow to pay for today! This is nuts!
You would think that once it is clear that nobody has the answers, caution would be the order of the day. But no, instead we throw caution to wind and race to spend money we don't have to bail out people who can't be rescued. We are bailing out banks, insurance companies, probably auto companies, those unfortunate individuals who are in trouble with their mortgages, and probably city and state governments as well. We are at the point where we are no longer talking tens or hundreds of billion of dollars, but are now talking in the trillions. And these trillions of dollars are dollars we don't actually have. This can't possibly end well.
But not everyone is in trouble. There are people in the country who have made it a habit to live within their means. IS THERE ANYONE IN OUR GOVERNMENT LOOKING OUT FOR THOSE OF US WHO HAVE USED OUR HOMES AS ATM MACHINES, WHO HAVE NOT MADE IT A LIFESTYLE TO BORROW FROM TOMORROW TO PAY FOR TODAY? It would appear not. Isn't anyone willing to stand up and be the voice of us that don't have massive credit card debt, that have gone without at times because we didn't have the money to pay for it, that have made a habit of saving some of what we earn because it is the right thing to do?
This whole economic situation is not only sad, it is downright maddening. What is most frustrating is that those of us that have lived our lives in an economically responsible way are going to get stuck with the tab for the disaster that our government seems intent on bringing upon us!
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